Note: Yesterday I updated my Oklahoma Senate analysis with new polling data, FEC campaign finance data, and more. Go take a look and share it with your friends - there’s only one more week until election day!
Other Note: I hit the wrong button when recording today’s audio version, so I apologize for the poor sound quality. Lesson learned. Next week’s edition will be top-notch!
—Eric
It’s a busy time in Washington, with ongoing January 6 hearings, continued negotiations over gun law reforms, the pending release of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs opinion on abortion, and more. I’m going to do my best to stay on top of it all and make sure you’re the first to know what’s important and why it matters!
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 20, 2022.
Today is 141 days until the November midterm elections (about 20 weeks).
We are 869 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
Dobbs watch is on
The Supreme Court’s term typically ends the last week of June or first week of July. Many years this goes by without notice, but not 2022. We are still waiting for opinions to be handed down in 19 cases. The blockbuster of the term will be Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which is widely expected to overturn Roe v. Wade after a draft decision was leaked in May. There’s no way to know for sure if the opinion will come out this week or next, but it’s going to consume the week’s news when it does.
Why this matters: The Biden administration is struggling under a rash of bad news, much of it economic. The pending Dobbs decision could supercharge the social and cultural debate on the hottest of hot-button issues. Some left-wing activist groups have already been committing violence against pregnancy care centers and promising more if Dobbs overturns Roe - actions condemned by the White House last week. A man was arrested two weeks ago just steps from Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home and charged with attempted murder of the Justice.
Bottom line: The temperature is already approaching the boiling point in our society. There is a significant chance Dobbs could be the catalyst to set off major protests and civic unrest.
Recession talk picks up
Last week, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by 0.75%, the largest increase since 1994. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also suggested rates could rise another 0.50% or 0.75% next month. In the wake of this announcement, financial and political media began fiercely debating whether or not the Fed’s actions intended to rein in inflation will cause a recession.
Why this matters: The current inflation rate stands at an eye-popping 8.6% and has been rising steadily since bottoming out two years ago at 0.1% in May 2020. Inflation of consumer goods, gasoline, and grocery prices has been hitting Americans - aka voters - hard in the pocketbook throughout the first half of 2022. The stock market entered bear market territory last week, down 20% from its recent peak. If a true recession hits in the next few months, causing job losses and more economic harm, it will be politically catastrophic for the party in the White House, whether or not they caused the problems.
Bottom line: Democrats are already expecting a red wave in November. A recession in the next four months would turn that red wave into a red tsunami.
Gun deal hits speed bump
Last week I reported on the landmark framework agreement on gun reform, but cautioned that it was far from a done deal. Just days later, word came from Congressional negotiators that the bill’s language has hit a snag over how to define “boyfriend” (or “girlfriend”) when attempting to close the “boyfriend loophole.” Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) has threatened to toss out the entire provision.
Why this matters: As always with bipartisan agreements, the devil is in the details. Sometimes there is true disagreement in the detailed legislative language; sometimes negotiators feeling heat from their base for making a deal find a reason to blow it up. So far it still seems that negotiators have not gotten cold feet on the overall package, but this could be a bad sign.
Bottom line: Conservatives and Progressives have each been internally split on whether or not this compromise is a good deal. While the boyfriend issue is a legitimately difficult one to hammer out, it also buys both sides more time to take the temperature of their parties and decide if they really want to move forward or not.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Bill Clinton offers advice on talking to pro-gun rights activists: “Don’t talk down to them”
Biden likely to meet Saudi crown prince, reversing campaign vow
GOP Senate retirements could spell trouble for earmarks’ future
House looks to beef up security, braces for unions with Legislative Branch bill
Brooklyn venue cancels sold-out concert featuring attempted Reagan assassin
Get ready for the catastrophic Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) shortage
And a fun one:
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
Republicans picked up one seat this week with the special election victory of Connie Conway (R-CA) in California’s 22nd District to serve out the remaining term of Devin Nunes (R-CA), who resigned in January. This week, Mayra Flores (R-TX) won the race to succeed Filemon Vela (D-TX), and once she is sworn in on Tuesday, the Republicans will pick up one more from the vacancy column. But as of today, Democrats hold a 220-209 advantage over the GOP. Six seats are vacant. This gives the Dems an 11-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails).
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.8% Approve, 54.2% Disapprove (Net: -14.4%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.0%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. Biden’s approval level is now 2.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.2% Approve, 69.0% Disapprove (Net: -47.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.0%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.5
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.0%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is in Delaware until Tuesday. He leaves Saturday for a six-day European trip to attend the G7 summit in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain.
House
In Session Tuesday through Friday this week. Recess the next two weeks.
Senate
In Session this week. Recess the next two weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 21
Alabama (Runoffs)
Senate: Katie Britt, former Chief of Staff to retiring Senator Richard Shelby, takes on Rep. Mo Brooks. Britt has maintained a healthy lead in recent polls, but Brooks’ resurgence since being left for dead by Trump in March leaves many uncertain of the outcome. If he can continue that momentum and complete his comeback, it would send a massive statement about Trump’s continuing grip on the GOP.
House: One runoff in the 5th District Republican Primary. This race to replace Mo Brooks pits Dale Strong (who received 44.7% in the primary) vs. Casey Wardynski (23.0%).
Arkansas (Runoffs: no Senate or House runoffs)
Georgia (Runoffs)
Senate: No runoff
House: Several House primaries have proceeded to runoffs. I will focus on the seats that are potentially in play in November.
The 2nd District GOP primary will have Jeremy Hunt (37.0%) face Chris West (30.1%). Hunt is endorsed by Senators Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Josh Hawley (R-MO). The winner will face 30-year Democratic incumbent Rep. Sanford Bishop in a race rated anywhere from Tossup to Likely D. The new 2nd District rates D+4 and is the most competitive district in the state. It should be highly competitive in November.
The 6th District GOP primary will have Rich McCormick (43.1%) face Jake Evans (23.0%). The seat Is currently held by Rep. Lucy McBath (D), but she opted to run in the nearby 7th District, as the new 6th is heavily Republican at R+24. Evans is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, while McCormick is endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and several sitting U.S. Representatives.
The 10th District GOP primary will have Mike Collins (25.6%) face Vernon Jones (21.5%) in a race to replace Rep. Jody Hice (R), who unsuccessfully challenged the Georgia Secretary of State in the recent primary. Collins is endorsed by Governor Brian Kemp, while Jones is endorsed by former President Donald Trump. The district leans heavily Republican at R+31.
Virginia (Primaries)
Senate: No Senate election.
House: Virginia will have several competitive elections among its 11 seats.
The new 2nd District leans R+6, putting incumbent Elaine Luria (D) in deep trouble. Four Republicans are on the ballot fighting to face Luria, and it appears Jen Kiggans has gained the most support.
In the 7th District, leaning D+2, incumbent Abigail Spanberger (D) will face whichever opponent wins the six-way GOP primary. The district’s even partisan split and close proximity to DC will make it one of the most closely watched and hard-fought of the cycle.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Share this post