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The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 1, 2022.
Today is 99 days until the November midterm elections (about 14 weeks).
We are 827 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months).
Top Storylines
Biden finally scores some wins
Over the past two months, I’ve often apologized for feeling like I’m being overly critical of President Biden. Unfortunately for him, though, just about everything that could go wrong has been going wrong for quite some time. Last week was the first time in months that it felt like he was seeing a glimmer of hope.
As we’ll discuss in a second, the yearlong logjam finally broke and Congress passed a semiconductor and research bill to shore up domestic supplies and help the U.S. compete with China in this critical space. After weeks in the stratosphere, gas prices finally felt like they were coming back down to earth, although they’re still hovering near $4 nationwide.
The biggest news was Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) shocking reversal on the climate, energy, tax increase, and prescription drug bill he had so publicly walked away from just weeks ago. The bill is being called the “most ambitious climate action undertaken by the U.S.” This legislation now looks poised to become law over the coming weeks.
Why this matters: Biden desperately needed these wins. However, he’s still a long way from being out of the woods. The economy is still not in great shape, and last week’s news that we have had two consecutive quarters of economic contraction (which led to a very public argument about whether or not we are technically in a recession - also more on this in a second) stepped on Biden’s good news week.
Bottom line: Having some wins going into November may mitigate the damage of the predicted red tsunami and help it only hit as a normal wave. It may not be perfect, but Biden and his team will gladly take it.
Congress passes semiconductor bill
On Thursday, the House passed the CHIPS Act with a broad, bipartisan vote of 243-187. It previously passed the Senate 64-33, and now awaits President Biden’s signature. The bill will provide over $280 billion in total funding, with $52.7 billion of the total directed toward domestic semiconductor production. About $200 billion is directed toward scientific research and the National Science Foundation. It also reauthorizes NASA and provides funding for Supreme Court security.
Republicans were fuming over the bill’s passage, not necessarily because of the substance, but because of what they felt was a deceitful move by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). As we discussed recently, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said over the July 4 weekend that Republicans would not help pass a semiconductor incentives bill if the Democrats were going to move forward with a reconciliation package. Reconciliation appeared dead as a doornail when Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) backed out a couple of weeks ago, which made Republicans comfortable moving the CHIPS Act forward. No sooner had it passed than Manchin and Schumer announced they had been secretly continuing negotiations on a reconciliation package and had reached an agreement.
Why this matters: Democrats are more than happy to pull one over on McConnell and give him what they feel is a taste of his own medicine. They also are happy to finally have Republicans be on the receiving end of a Manchin power move. I would say this double-cross would poison the well for legislation the rest of the year, but I think that ship already sailed long ago.
Bottom line: The Senate is now finished working across the aisle for 2022. Anything else major will have to wait until either a lame duck session or early 2023.
Are we in a recession?
The other big story from last week was the news that the U.S. experienced its second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction, which historically has been used as a shorthand definition of a recession. The White House, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a host of other surrogates took to the airwaves ahead of and immediately after the report to try and change the narrative, arguing that the technical definition of a “recession” includes many more factors than this rule of thumb. This became the predominant argument of the political class for at least three or four days last week.
Technically, the White House is correct: the National Bureau of Economic Research takes numerous other factors into account when deciding whether or not to label events “recessions.” However, this yet again looked to me like a messaging mistake for the Biden administration. Rather than making the discussion about the positive news of the week (see above), they turned the narrative into a grand example of the Streisand Effect: when attempts to minimize or distract attention from a piece of information have the unintended consequence of drawing further attention to the issue.
Why this matters: The multi-day argument over the definition of “recession” ultimately led far more people to talk about there being a recession than if the administration hadn’t made the definition such an issue. People are feeling the pinch of higher prices, and they don’t much care what word you use to label it. They just want to know that their elected leaders care about them and are working hard to fix the problem.
Bottom line: The Biden team continues to be tone-deaf in its efforts to address the economic needs and concerns of everyday Americans. They need to bring in some high-level leadership that can focus on how their words connect to ordinary people and stop focusing on eggheadery such as this.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Politics & Elections
How Can Democrats Persuade Voters They’re Not a Party of Rich Elites?
No, really — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president?
Revolving door creates questions and complications for Kamala Harris
Fox News snubbed Trump’s speech, in what’s becoming a pattern.
Policy & Legislation
What is reconciliation, and what are Democrats going to get done with it?
Biden Is Facing Crisis After Crisis. But Are They Emergencies?
Democrats introduce bill to enact term limits for Supreme Court justices
Congress
Angry callers are threatening Congress. These interns are on the front lines
New House security program to provide members $10K to safeguard their homes
Freedom Caucus demands rule changes for House and GOP conference
And a fun one:
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-211 advantage over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.7% Approve, 56.0% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.7%
Recent trend: President Biden bounced back this week, almost improving his net by 3 points. He’s still about 3 points lower than he was two months ago, though, and has a long way to go to get back to positive approval. His approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 18.4% Approve, 72.4% Disapprove (Net: -54.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.3%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 8 points.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +0.9%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.6%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January, but it has shown some signs of narrowing in recent weeks.
On the Calendar
President
No travel announced.
House
Recess this week and the next six weeks.
Senate
In session this week, recess the next four weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, August 2 - five states with federal primaries:
Arizona
Senate: Big GOP race to see who goes up against Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in November. I covered this race a few weeks ago. It looks like this is coming down to the wire as a two-man race between Trump-backed venture capitalist and Peter Thiel acolyte Blake Masters and former solar energy exec Jim Lamon. Tons of cash has been spent in this race by both candidates as well as outside PACs. Masters initially separated himself from the crowd after Trump’s endorsement but has lost some ground after some stumbles and unearthing of past controversial statements. Lamon’s personal fortune has allowed him to continue pounding the airwaves to capitalize on Masters’ missteps. This one will come down to the wire.
House: Arizona has nine House seats, and incumbents are running for re-election in all but one, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is retiring in the 6th District. Her seat is a strong pickup opportunity for the Republicans, as the new district leans R+3. Also watch the 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran has been redistricted into an R+6 district. Seven Republicans are vying for the nomination to face him in November. Six-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert is also facing a strong primary challenge in the 1st District, after multiple ethical issues in recent years.
Kansas
Senate: Two-term incumbent Sen. Jerry Moran (R) is running for re-election and is expected to coast to victory against token opposition.
House: Kansas has four districts, but only two-term Rep. Sharice Davids faces a strong challenge this year in the R+1 2nd District, on the outskirts of Kansas City. Two Republicans are battling for the chance to face her in November.
Ballot Issue: The largest attention tomorrow will be on the ballot proposal to amend the State Constitutional regarding abortion. This will be the first major ballot test nationwide in the wake of the Dobbs decision and is being closely watched by many other states.
Michigan
Senate: No Senate race.
House: Michigan lost one seat in the 2020 Census and now has 13. The reshuffling of the map has created several interesting situations, with two incumbent Republicans facing one another for the new 4th District, two incumbent Democrats facing off in both the 11th and 12th Districts, and no incumbents running in the 10th or 13th Districts. Major national attention has also fallen on the GOP primary in the 3rd District, where incumbent Peter Meijer, one of only 10 Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump, is seeking re-election. National Democrats have spent significant money trying to promote Meijer’s opponent John Gibbs, a staunch Trump ally, drawing criticism from both the left and right for hypocrisy.
Missouri
Senate: Two-term incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring. The GOP primary race to succeed him is coming down to three main candidates. In alphabetical order, they are: Former Governor Eric Greitens, six-term Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler*, and Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Greitens has received a lot of national attention for his attempt to return to glory after resigning from his governorship in 2017 amid numerous scandals. After leading the pack for much of the race, he has begun to noticeably fade in the polls in recent weeks. Hartzler and Schmitt now appear to be duking it out for the victory. Depending on which poll you look at, they are either neck-and-neck, trading leads, or Schmitt has a slight-to-moderate advantage. All polls still have significant levels of undecideds, though, so this one could go either way.
House: The delegation has two open seats, to replace Rep. Hartzler and Rep. Billy Long (R), who also chose to run for Senate. Both races are hotly contested by a large number of viable candidates, and no one has emerged as a clear frontrunner in either. Whoever wins will coast to victory in November, as both districts are heavily Republican. The other interesting primary is in St. Louis, where “squad” member Cori Bush (D) faces sitting state senator Steve Roberts (D). While most seem to favor Bush in the race, don’t be surprised if Roberts gives her a run for her money in this heavily-Dem district. Incumbents are expected to cruise to victory in the other five districts.
Tennessee (Thursday, 8/4)
Senate: Five-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition.
House: With longtime Dem Rep. Jim Cooper retiring rather than run in his now-R+9 5th District, nine Republicans are facing off to compete for the seat. Incumbents are running in the other eight seats, five of whom are unopposed.
Washington
Senate: Five-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition.
House: Incumbents are running in all 10 of Washington’s House seats. GOP Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse both voted to impeach former President Trump and have drawn his ire. He has endorsed opponents for both, but it is not clear who will prevail in either battle.
*In full disclosure, I was employed for five years by Congresswoman Hartzler.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Political Cheat Sheet: Biden finally gets some wins