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The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 11, 2022.
Today is 120 days until the November midterm elections (about 17 weeks).
We are 848 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
Congress battles over final legislative push before elections
With just weeks before the August recess, Congressional Democrats are scrambling to cobble together and pass two major pieces of legislation: a 2,000-plus-page bipartisan domestic semiconductor manufacturing incentive bill known as USICA and a trimmed-down version of last year’s partisan budget reconciliation package. They are hoping to include many provisions in the reconciliation bill, like clean energy incentives, tax increases on high earners, a plan to lower prescription drug prices, an extension of increased Obamacare benefits, and more.
After Dems had appeared to make some progress on the reconciliation bill, Republican Leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) took to Twitter to douse their hopes with ice water:
Democratic Leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is continuing to look for ways to pressure McConnell into allowing both USICA and reconciliation to proceed.
In even-numbered years (years with Congressional elections), almost no major legislation ever passes after the spring. Occasionally something significant gets across the finish line during June and July. Absent a crisis, absolutely nothing important passes between August and November. Part of that is because lawmakers are on recess (see last week’s newsletter about that here - What does Congress DO on “recess”?), and part is because they don’t want to risk doing anything that might hurt their chances of re-election. Either way, serious legislation this late in the year is a huge uphill battle.
Why this matters: Congressional Democrats remain fearful of a coming red wave in November. After their string of bad political news the past few months, they are searching desperately for a win. If this effort falls through, they can stop looking at Capitol Hill as their search for a lifeboat continues.
Bottom line: Mitch McConnell is not going to be the one tossing a life preserver to the Democrats less than four months before a major election in which he stands a strong chance of earning a major victory. I’m extremely skeptical that anything politically advantageous for the Dems emerges from the Senate at this late hour.
Could trouble across the pond be a preview of things to come here?
After not quite three years in power, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last week that he will resign once a successor is determined. He had been on thin ice over several issues, most notably the charges of hypocrisy stemming from the flouting of his own government’s COVID policies by holding maskless parties at 10 Downing Street at the height of the pandemic. The final straw, though, was the revelation that he had backed the promotion of MP Chris Pincher to Deputy Chief Whip despite having personal knowledge of prior sexual harassment misconduct.
This fascinating image from Chartr shows just how dramatic and total the collapse of Johnson’s government truly was. Although the pace of resignations had already been running high for his entire tenure, the past week was disastrous.
Why this matters: Many observers believe the U.K. is a leading indicator of the political winds that eventually blow to the U.S., with issues like Brexit (which Johnson championed) viewed as precursors to America’s recent populist turn. The Brits have had their fill of Johnson’s unorthodox personality and brash approach. Is this a harbinger of things to come in America?
Bottom line: In recent months, some signs in the U.S. have also hinted that populism may be on the wane. Trump’s power over GOP primaries is not what it used to be, and the January 6 hearings have been a sobering moment for some. November is not far off, so we will soon see if the BoJo debacle was really predictive of coming waves on this side of the Atlantic.
2024 Presidential Election already heating up
Speaking of elections… Yes, it’s still 28 months away, but many politicos are already looking past the November midterms and eyeing the 2024 Presidential campaign. We’ve previously covered rumors that former President Donald Trump is considering announcing his candidacy soon. Over the 4th of July, the rumor mill kicked into overdrive when California Governor Gavin Newsom paid for TV ads across Florida needling Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, widely considered the other top GOP contender for the nomination.
Last year’s unsuccessful recall attempt against Newsom, which he defeated by a nearly 24% margin, appears to have actually strengthened him by drawing national attention and raising his profile within the party. He wants to position himself as an unapologetic progressive who isn’t afraid to pick fights with the leading names in the GOP.
Why this matters: Newsom and DeSantis are both in interesting yet similar positions. Each is seen as a younger up-and-comer in their parties, but both have to tread carefully to not step on their parties’ current standard-bearers. Crossing President Biden or former President Trump could potentially kill either Newsom or DeSantis’s ambitions before they ever get off the ground. But the degree to which both have begun openly showing their ambition for the Presidency indicates they are ready to test those waters.
Bottom line: It looks like both parties are on the verge of an all-out war between the old guard and the new. If Newsom and DeSantis both decide to charge forward and challenge the party hierarchy, we could be in for a (hopefully metaphorically) brutal battle.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Elections
Biden Promised to Stay Above the Fray, but Democrats Want a Fighter
One of the Few Potential Bright Spots for Democrats in 2022: The Senate
The Strident Writings of a Young Blake Masters Dog His Senate Run in Arizona
Nebraska quirk used new map to fill House vacancy last month
Energy
E.P.A. Describes How It Will Regulate Power Plants After Supreme Court Setback
Miscellaneous
And two fun ones for the Anglophiles out there:
Source: Chicago Tribune
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 38.4% Approve, 56.4% Disapprove (Net: -18.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.3%
Recent trend: President Biden’s net disapproval has basically doubled in the past two months, and is now nearing -20%. Biden’s approval level is now 3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 19.2% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.8%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has grown by about 10 points as citizens grow more displeased with the direction of the country.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.5%
Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.5%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden will travel to Israel and Saudi Arabia Wednesday through Saturday, July 13-16.
House
In session the next three weeks.
Senate
In session the next four weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 14 - No primaries. There will be one primary next week in Maryland.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Political Cheat Sheet