Summer is definitely here, and things are figuratively heating up in DC, too. Last week the January 6 primetime hearings drew lots of attention, news came yesterday of a deal on gun legislation, and the Democrats began speaking openly of replacing President Biden on the 2024 ticket. We’ll get into those stories and more.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 13, 2022.
Today is 148 days until the November midterm elections (about 21 weeks).
We are 876 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
January 6 Committee continues its hearings
Last Thursday, nearly 19 million people watched the prime-time hearing held by the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack. The Committee’s presentation alleged a seven-part conspiracy by President Trump to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential Election. This week brings three more days of hearings on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but they will not be held in prime time.
Why this matters: The 19 million viewership number for the Thursday night hearing was surprisingly high. With this week’s hearings being during the workday, expect much less attention for the subsequent episodes. Thursday’s hearing did not have any true bombshells and mainly re-stated many things that had been discussed at length previously.
Bottom line: Ultimately, everyone already has their minds made up about January 6. For Democrats, it is clear President Trump tried to overturn a free and fair election, and he and his supporters should be held fully accountable as such. For Republicans, it was either not nearly as bad as Democrats make it out to be, or it was a one-off event that got out of control due to some bad apples in the crowd. No hearing, prime-time or not, is going to change this dynamic.
Gun control compromise reached
On Sunday, a group comprised of 10 Democrat Senators and 10 Republican Senators announced they had reached a deal on a framework to reform certain gun laws. The agreement includes incentives for states to implement “red flag” laws, increased funding for school security, and increased funding for mental health services.
Why this matters: Democrats needed to find 10 GOP votes to overcome the filibuster, and it appears they have them. However, I will be watching the response of gun control activists closely. There's a chance they will be outraged by the tepid nature of this agreement and will demand more.
Bottom line: If activists raise enough of a ruckus, this agreement could fall apart in the Senate before it even reaches a vote. They also could create chaos in the House by pushing progressive members to demand a stronger bill, which could torpedo passage.
Cracks in Biden’s united front starting to show
President Biden has continually said he plans to run for re-election in 2024. However, his sliding approval numbers plus seemingly endless bad economic news have been privately worrying Democrats. Privately, that is, until the New York Times ran a story last week entitled “Should Biden Run in 2024? Democratic Whispers of ‘No’ Start to Rise.” The story quoted several high-profile Democrats on the record raising concerns about Biden’s fitness and ability to run, including top Obama strategist David Axelrod.
Why this matters: Now that these arguments have spilled out into the public - and in the New York Times, no less - the gloves will come off. Notably, the story says that few Democrats have an appetite to run Vice President Kamala Harris, and said they are openly exploring other options.
Bottom line: Without a looming re-election bid, any President quickly earns lame-duck status, making it nearly impossible to get anything new done. Unfortunately for Biden, it looks more and more like that day is quickly approaching.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Paladino Draws Backlash for Calling Hitler “the Kind of Leader We Need”
“Clusterf--k”: Inside The Washington Post’s Social Media Meltdown
Colorado to Examine Lauren Boebert’s Mileage Claims and Tax Liens
Hill staff just got raises. Now members say it's their turn.
Another Challenge for November: Getting Enough Paper for the Ballots
Chart: Skyrocketing Cost of Eggs, Milk, Meat, and Other Food Staples
And a fun one:
2022 Uber Lost & Found, including the “50 most unique items lost.” Some examples:
Metal leg
Tube for chugging drinks. Very expensive.
A dart that says “unleash the beast”
Some tater tots
6 pool drains and an Employee of the Month plaque
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 40.2% Approve, 53.6% Disapprove (Net: -13.4%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.5%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. Biden’s approval level is now 3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.6% Approve, 68.4% Disapprove (Net: -46.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: No change.
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +3.5
Change from last week: GOP advantage up 1.4%
Recent trend: Republicans held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is returning today from a weekend in Delaware. He will speak to the AFL-CIO Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
House
In Session Monday through Thursday this week. Recess the next two weeks.
Senate
In Session this week and next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 14
Maine
No Senate race.
House: Maine’s two House districts are quite different. In the 1st District, Chellie Pingree (D) is safe for re-election. The 2nd District, where Rep. Jared Golden (D) is running for re-election, is rated as a toss-up. His opponent will likely be former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R), who Golden defeated in 2018 to win the seat. It is expected to be hotly contested.
Nevada
Senate: Catherine Cortez Masto (D) running for re-election; pure toss-up. Adam Laxalt (R) is a heavy favorite in the GOP primary and is likely to face Cortez Masto in November.
House: Nevada’s four House members (3 Democrats and 1 Republican) are all running for re-election. With the 3 Dem seats rated D+2, D+3, and D+3, all three of these races will be heavily contested and are potential Republican pickups.
North Dakota
Senate: John Hoeven (R) is safe for re-election.
House: Kelly Armstrong (R) is safe for re-election.
South Carolina
Senate: Tim Scott (R) is safe for re-election.
House: Reps. Nancy Mace (R) and Tom Rice (R) have been targeted by former President Trump in the primary for perceived disloyalty. South Carolina is a runoff state, so if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, the top two will proceed to a runoff just two weeks later.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
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