Good Monday morning!
My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support!
This week’s poll:
Last week’s poll was Should Joe Biden run for President in 2024? I’m also including the results from two weeks ago, when I asked Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024?
Looks like you all are interested in some new blood on both sides!
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 8, 2022.
Today is 92 days until the November midterm elections (about 13 weeks).
We are 820 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months).
Top Storylines
There is still such a thing as “too far” in politics
For the past few years, it has felt like there was no limit to how extreme politicians could get without paying a penalty at the ballot box. Candidates of both parties have said and done all manner of outrageous or over-the-line things, yet it seemed to only make them more popular with the base. Last week, in my home state of Missouri, this theory was put to a major test. Fortunately, the outrageous candidate lost.
Former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned after not even a year and a half in office, was a leading candidate for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. He created numerous scandals and outrages, including allegedly tying up his mistress in his basement, stripping her naked, spitting in her mouth, and photographing her for blackmail. In the ensuing divorce, his wife alleged he had physically and verbally abused her and their sons, even hitting their three-year-old son and knocking out a tooth. He turned his MAGA up to 11 for his Senatorial comeback bid, issuing an online ad in which he and a heavily-armed SWAT team executed a no-knock raid on a suburban house in order to hunt “RINOs,” or Republicans In Name Only. Despite all this, he led the field in most polls until only a month or so ago.
The “RINO Hunter” ad seemed to backfire on Greitens, turning off the same undecided voters he needed to achieve victory. Several large ad buys carpeted the airwaves in July to highlight his alleged abuse of his wife and children, which also had a clear effect on the polls. In the end, despite a half-endorsement from former President Donald Trump, he only earned 18.9% of the vote. Greitens finished almost 27 points behind the winner, State Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and only won three of the state’s 114 counties.
Graphic credit: New York Times Election Center. Why this matters: Politics is still brutal and divisive right now. Candidates continue to go to the extremes in search of attention and votes. But I think we have seen that there is an edge. Candidates can go too far. Between Greitens and Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), who was sent packing after numerous outrages and poor choices, candidates who are too extreme actually can lose support and votes rather than rack up more and more support. There’s a tipping point out there - the problem is that it’s WAY out there.
Bottom line: There is reason to hope that our country does still have some sense of decency… you just have to dig pretty deep to find it right now.
Kansas abortion amendment changes electoral calculus
This week we saw the first hint of what could become another major factor in the left’s favor this November. Voters in Kansas resoundingly defeated an amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed the legislature to restrict or outlaw abortion. The pro-choice side won 59-41 in one of the reddest of red states after both sides spent millions of dollars educating voters about the issue. Turnout was more than double that of some recent primaries, with many voters unaffiliated with either party showing up to vote solely on the amendment.
Even pro-choice activists were surprised by the magnitude of both the electoral turnout and the win. As shown in the fascinating graphic by The Washington Post shown below, every single county voted to the left of the 2020 Presidential election. As the Post explains, “The (diagonal) line indicates an equivalent margin in the 2020 presidential contest and in the amendment vote.” This was no fluke or anomaly; voters knew what they were doing and were cold to the amendment.
Why this matters: Democrats hope that abortion rights are truly as popular as this vote made it seem. They plan to double down on the issue moving forward. Unfortunately for them, abortion will not actually be on very many ballots in November, with measures currently expected in Kentucky, Michigan, California and Vermont. None of these states have competitive Senate races this year that could help the Dems overcome the general headwinds they face.
The one thing you can count on is that Democrats will now do everything they can to convince voters everywhere that “abortion is on the ballot” when they vote for candidates. Get ready to hear that phrase a lot.
What remains to be seen is just how motivating such an effort is. Holding a separate, clear vote on an issue is a lot different than voting on candidates who hold all kinds of other opinions. No matter how strongly voters feel about abortion, they’ll also be taking into account the economy, inflation, taxes, and everything else they typically consider when deciding on a candidate.
Bottom line: It’s not easy to make an election a referendum about one issue if that issue is not literally on the ballot. The news out of Kansas gives the Dems hope, but it is likely not enough to transform a red wave into a blue one.
Reconciliation bill heads toward final passage
Sunday afternoon, the Senate voted 51-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, to pass the Democrats’ long-awaited budget reconciliation package. The House plans to come back into session to vote on it this Friday.
The bill has major provisions for climate, clean energy, taxes, health care, prescription drug prices and more. It allocates over $300 billion for climate change, extends Obamacare subsidies, increases conservation funding, and provides drought relief. The new costs are more than offset by new revenue, including a 15% minimum tax on large corporations, a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks, and increased funding for IRS enforcement.
Why this matters: The recent string of wins continues to roll for Biden. In just the past few weeks, he has notched wins on this bill, the CHIPS Act, a burn pit bill, a historic gun reform bill, the approval of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and the killing of al-Qaida boss Ayman al-Zawahri in Kabul. Combined with the recent pullback in energy prices and strong jobs reports, things are starting to look up for the party in power. These positive developments couldn’t have come at a better time for the Dems. If the news hadn’t turned around, they may have been headed for a clobbering like no modern party has seen.
Bottom line: The Democrats are still more likely than not to take losses in November, but they have finally taken steps to mitigate the damage.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Politics & Elections
Axelrod: Biden wins may reduce midterm headwinds facing Democrats to ‘Category 3’
Fetterman Plans His Return to Campaign Trail in Pennsylvania Senate Race
The Republican National Convention Will Be Held in Milwaukee in 2024
Foreign Policy
U.S. Drone Strike Kills al-Qaida Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul
From the one-China policy to the Taiwan Relations Act, here’s what to know
Policy & Legislation
Senate Passes Bill to Expand Benefits for Veterans Exposed to Burn Pits
McConnell dismisses claim he was ‘played’ on reconciliation bill
Democrats add stock buyback tax, scrap carried interest to win Sinema over
Miscellaneous
Phones of top Pentagon officials were wiped of Jan. 6 messages
Lawyer Says He Intends to Give Alex Jones’s Texts to House Jan. 6 Panel
Third Person Dies after Being Struck by Lightning Outside White House
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
One change this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. The Republicans lost one member last week with the tragic death of Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) in a car accident.
Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.3% Approve, 55.6% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%)
Change (in Net) from last week: No change
Recent trend: President Biden’s approval rate has not yet significantly improved, despite his recent victories. His approval level is now 4.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 19.6% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.4%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.6%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 7 points.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +0.1%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.8%
Recent trend: The GOP advantage that has held steady throughout 2022 is on the razor’s edge of evaporating. At this point, the parties are effectively tied. Due to the makeup of the Congressional map, Republicans have an inherent advantage of a few points, but the additional margin they held throughout the spring and first half of the summer is gone.
On the Calendar
President
Today, President Biden plans to travel to Kentucky to view damage from recent flooding, assuming he is sufficiently recovered from COVID.
House
Scheduled for recess this week and the next five weeks, but tentatively planning to briefly return this Friday to vote on the reconciliation package.
Senate
Scheduled for recess this week and the next three weeks, but subject to change if there are any hiccups in passing the reconciliation package.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, August 9 - four states with federal primaries:
Connecticut
Senate: Richard Blumenthal (D) is running for a third term. He has already been nominated by his party at its convention. Three Republicans are competing for the chance to face him in November, but their odds of prevailing are long. This seat will stay with the Dems in deep-blue Connecticut.
House: Connecticut has five House seats, unchanged from the 2010 Census. The incumbents, all Democrats, are all running for re-election and are all expected to win tomorrow. In November, keep an eye on the 2nd District covering the eastern half of the state, held by Rep. Joe Courtney (D), and the 5th District covering the northwestern portion, held by Rep. Jahana Hayes (D). Both districts are rated as D+2, making them potential battlegrounds in November should a red wave materialize.
Minnesota
Senate: No Senate race.
House: Minnesota retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) died in February, so the election in the 1st District will be a special election to serve out the remainder of his term. The district is nominally R+7, but it has been extremely close each of the past three elections. National attention will be on the 5th District, where controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) has drawn stiff competition and big opposition money in her race to keep her safe Democratic seat.
Vermont
Senate: Patrick Leahy (D) is retiring after eight terms. His likely successor is Rep. Peter Welch (D), who has served eight terms as Vermont’s only representative in the House. He is expected to win handily, both tomorrow and in November.
House: With Rep. Welch stepping down to run for Senate, the race to succeed him in Vermont’s single House seat is likely to be won by State Senate President pro tem Becca Balint (D). She is expected to cruise to victory in November.
Wisconsin
Senate: Ron Johnson (R) is running for a third term. He is expected to face a stiff challenge from Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D), after the other major Dem candidates dropped out and endorsed Barnes. Preliminary polling shows a very close race in November for this 50-50 state.
House: Wisconsin retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. Ron Kind (D) is retiring in the 3rd District, which leans R+4. This is a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP, which has consolidated behind Derrick Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL and 2020 candidate for the seat.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
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