On Thursday I asked a simple question: Should Donald Trump run again? I got some very thoughtful responses - thanks to everyone who read and commented!
Let’s make it even easier - please cast your anonymous vote here:
I’ll share the results next week.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 18, 2022.
Today is 113 days until the November midterm elections (about 16 weeks).
We are 841 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months).
Top Storylines
Biden’s Middle East trip draws lukewarm reception back home
On Saturday, Joe Biden returned from his first major trip to the Middle East as president, bringing home a mixed bag of headlines. After a stop in Israel that went mostly according to plan, he flew to Saudi Arabia, where his actions received much more criticism. The lingering image of the entire trip will be Biden fist-bumping Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman upon arrival in the kingdom.
President Biden fist-bumps Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely known as MBS (Saudi Press Agency/AP) While campaigning for President, Biden had promised to make bin Salman, commonly referred to by his initials MBS, a “pariah” (or outcast) on the world stage. This was in response to U.S. intelligence determining MBS had personally approved the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian journalist who lived in the U.S. and wrote for The Washington Post. By most reports, Biden only reluctantly agreed to meet with MBS after months of pushing from his advisers, who believed it was necessary to push for expanded pumping of oil.
Before the trip, the White House did its best to avoid the inevitable bad optics of the Biden-MBS meeting, saying Biden would “try to minimize contact” with others while on the trip due to new COVID variants. The press and public saw straight through the effort, though - especially when Biden landed in Israel and promptly started shaking hands with old friends like former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
After their closed-door meeting, Biden claimed to have pushed MBS on the Khashoggi assassination, a point that was disputed by Saudis in the room. Biden has taken criticism from Americans over his handling of the situation, including the Washington Post’s publisher calling his actions “shameful.” Biden also did not leave the meeting with any firm promises for more oil, instead only getting vague assurances for future action.
Why this matters: Biden fist-bumping MBS was a mistake. It looked like a couple of intimate buddies exchanging a knowing nod rather than the cold business relationship a simple handshake could have projected. Beyond that, the real problem is the bigger picture: Biden’s stock is so low and his domestic situation so dire that he felt he had no option but to beg for help from a pariah state. If he were in a strong position, he never would have felt the need to make this trip and elevate MBS’s position on the world stage.
Bottom line: Right now Biden’s situation is so weak that he has nothing left but bad options. Even still, he isn’t helping himself with unforced errors like the optics of his ill-advised fist-bump and the lack of concrete results from the meeting.
Manchin deals blow to Dems’ final attempt at big legislation
Feel like you’ve heard this one before? On Thursday Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) told Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that he would not support the biggest parts of the Democrats’ reconciliation package, all but killing efforts to pass major legislation before the midterms. Dems had hoped to include major climate, energy, and tax provisions in the bill, but Manchin said he would only support a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies and a provision to lower prescription drug prices. Manchin said he would not support any items that would add to inflation, telling Schumer he needed to wait to see next month’s numbers before he could support provisions that might add fuel to the inflationary fire.
Sen. Joe Manchin talks with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on the White House campus in Washington, March 15, 2022 (Patrick Semansky/AP file photo) President Biden responded by saying he would use “strong executive action” to enact climate provisions. He did not give details of exactly what this would include.
Why this matters: Democratic hopes of a big legislative win before November are now dead. They needed every single Democratic Senator on board to pass a reconciliation bill, and they simply do not have the votes now. Biden’s “executive action” statement is hollow - if he could have implemented major climate or tax policy without Congress, he already would have done so.
Bottom line: If Congressional Democrats are going to save their skin for the November midterms, they’ll have to look somewhere other than legislation. Nothing major is going to pass.
Inflation roars back into the headlines
Related to our last item, inflation is a problem that won’t go away. After improving a tiny bit last month and bringing out hopes that the worst was behind us, last week’s inflation report put the annual rate at 9.1 percent, setting another 40-year high. The number was worse than experts had predicted.
This chart I made from the Federal Reserve Economic Data engine (aka FRED) shows the Consumer Price Index over the past 5 years and puts in stark relief the difference between current trends and the status quo. So-called “core inflation" - excluding volatile energy and food prices - has been slightly decreasing since March.
Analysts now expect a strong response from the Federal Reserve at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps raising interest rates a full percent.
Why this matters: Just over 100 days out from the midterm elections, the economic picture continues to be grim. If the Fed increases interest rates a full point next week, millions of Americans with adjustable rate mortgages will be getting a bill for hundreds of dollars more per month right before an election. The only silver lining is that next month’s numbers should improve once the recent pullback in gas prices is factored in. Even still, gas is still stratospheric compared to a year ago. Summer electricity bills are significantly higher this year, as are food prices and darn near everything else.
Bottom line: Electorally, this report was a worst-case scenario for Congressional Democrats. Time is running out to turn around the narrative. Instead of even marginally improving, the news only seems to be getting worse.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Elections
Donald Trump looks to fall launch for 2024, potentially upending midterms
Biden says he wouldn’t be disappointed to run against Trump again
Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds
Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows
Congress
Senate Absences Snarl Democrats’ Plans for a Quick Return to Business
Take it from top Hill staffers: Congress doesn’t function as it should
Foreign Relations
China set to reveal ‘very bad’ economic picture after covid lockdowns
Fertilizer crisis delivers profits and pain as Ukraine fallout broadens
So what coups might John Bolton have been involved in, exactly?
January 6 Committee
Bipartisan bill would clarify that VP role with electors is only ceremonial
And a fun one:
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 38.5% Approve, 55.7% Disapprove (Net: -17.2%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 0.8%
Recent trend: The president gained a little ground this week, but his approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 19.0% Approve, 71.7% Disapprove (Net: -52.7%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.9%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 10 points.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.0%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.5%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden returned from his trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia on Saturday. He has not announced any travel yet for this week.
House
In session the next two weeks.
Senate
In session the next three weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, July 21 - One primary.
Maryland
Senate: Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) is running for re-election and is not expected to face any significant challenge.
House: Maryland did not gain or lose any seats in the new Census, retaining eight representatives. However, its new map is more competitive than the old one. Previously there were seven solid Dem districts and one solid GOP, but two of the solid Dem districts are now rated as competitive but Dem-leaning and one is now a toss-up. A couple of interesting races to keep an eye on:
4th District - Incumbent Anthony Brown (D) is not running for re-election, as he chose to run for Attorney General. In this heavily-Democratic seat, nine Dems are running to replace Brown. The district surrounds the southeastern and most of the northeastern border with the District of Columbia.
6th District - The new 6th District comprises the entire western panhandle of the state and is rated as a tossup. Sophomore incumbent David Trone (D) faces three Democrat and six Republican challengers. Regardless of who emerges victorious Tuesday, this district will be one of the few strong GOP takeover opportunities on the east coast and will therefore be heavily watched.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
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