Editor’s note: tomorrow morning I’ll release my analysis of the Florida Senate race. Does your mom live in Florida? Your brother, friend, or cousin? Forward them this email and tell them to subscribe so they don’t miss it! -Eric
No one will be surprised that this week’s #1 story is the Supreme Court. Two enormous rulings at the end of the week expanded the interpretation of the 2nd Amendment and overturned Roe v. Wade. It’s hard to get bigger than that, so that’s where we’ll start. But first…
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 27, 2022.
Today is 134 days until the November midterm elections (about 19 weeks).
We are 862 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
SCOTUS overturns Roe
On Friday, the Supreme Court announced its opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. This is one of the most important decisions in the history of the Court and a massive earthquake decades in the making. Aftershocks will reverberate for many years into the future.
Why this matters: The immediate practical impact is not that abortion is illegal nationwide, but rather that each state now has the ability to decide for itself whether or not abortion is legal within its boundaries. The political impact this November is the focus of intense speculation, but it is far too early to tell if it will actually change any outcomes at the ballot box. Some believe it will motivate Democratic constituencies to flood the polls and reverse the building red wave; others believe it will demoralize Democratic voters into staying home and sitting the election out.
Bottom line: Mark this week down in your journal. Years from now we will still be talking about Dobbs and its impact. We will not know for months or years just what the final effects of the decision are, so for now, just pay attention to the moment and remember. You’ll be thinking back to these times for decades.
SCOTUS expands 2nd Amendment interpretation as Congress tightens gun laws
On Thursday, the Court issued an opinion that, in any other year, would have been the blockbuster of the term. In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, the Court held that Americans have an individual Constitutional right to bear arms, and that the right does not require government permission to exercise. Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for the majority, said, “We know of no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officials some special need.“
On Friday, Congress passed the bipartisan compromise on gun legislation. President Biden signed the bill into law on Saturday, completing an incredible path from the drawing board to enacted law in the course of less than two weeks. The bill expands background checks for 18-to-21-year-old buyers, funds mental health and drug courts, encourages red flag laws through money to states, tightens gun trafficking and straw purchasing laws, and tightens what has been called the “boyfriend loophole.”
Why this matters: The Braun decision’s immediate impact is not enormous. Only six states had a licensing regime similar to that of New York. The long-term impact is that the Court, for the first time, decided that the 2nd Amendment protects an individual’s right to bear arms in public. The case’s holding will be the new basis for courts’ analysis of gun laws’ constitutionality moving forward. As for Congress’s action, the actual legal changes were fairly mild compared to what Democrats had sought. It is nonetheless being touted as the biggest gun legislation in nearly 30 years. Politically, I think this bill’s passage is likely to take any further gun control off the table for a decade or more.
Bottom line: Bruen is another major blow to Democrats, as it further solidifies the right’s perspective on the 2nd Amendment as the law of the land. And with Congress’s action Friday, gun laws are unlikely to get stricter for a long time. I doubt Democrats are going to be satisfied with that.
Biden proposes suspending fuel tax
On Wednesday, President Biden proposed a three-month suspension of federal gas and diesel taxes. As I mentioned that day, the 18.4-cent gasoline tax only accounts for 3.7% of the current price of gas. His proposal was met with lukewarm reception from both sides of the aisle, even from Speaker Pelosi.
Why this matters: Suspending the gas tax is widely viewed as a gimmick that would not help consumers very much and may cause more long-term problems than it solves. Senator Manchin said he would not vote for the proposal, making it dead on arrival in the Senate. Frankly, it looks like Biden’s team did not vet this proposal through his necessary Congressional allies at all before springing it on them.
Bottom line: If this is Biden’s best effort to help consumer pain at the pump, he’s pretty much out of ideas. It will not happen and will not even earn him much PR credit.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
All 213 pages of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion (ok, I didn’t actually read the whole thing, but it’s pretty monumental.)
‘It’s Become Real’: Abortion Decision Roils Midterms, Sending Fight to States
Here’s what is in the Senate’s gun bill — and what was left out.
Biden to call for three-month suspension of federal gas taxes
Gas prices aren't leading to less driving — yet
Source: Axios
Conservative faction’s earmark requests illustrate GOP divide
GOP senator suffers ‘serious’ hand injury, may require amputation
Can Congress be a little more like a tech company? Maybe.
Note: I highly recommend the apps the story mentions, Dome Watch and Dome Directory, both available on major app stores.
And a fun(?) one:
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
Republicans picked up another seat this week when Mayra Flores (R-TX) was sworn in to succeed Filemon Vela (D-TX). As of today, Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails).
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.3% Approve, 56.1% Disapprove (Net: -16.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 3.4%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop 3 points. There is now a distinct, discernable negative trend in his approval rating over the past several weeks. Biden’s approval level is now 3.3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.0% Approve, 69.0% Disapprove (Net: -48.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.2%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +3.4
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.1%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is attending the G7 summit in Germany and the NATO summit in Spain through Thursday.
House
Recess this week and next week.
Senate
Recess this week and next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 28… there are a ton this week, but then we barely have anything until August. Bear with me.
Primaries:
Colorado
Senate: Senator Michael Bennet (D) is running for a third full term. He will face the winner of the Republican primary, which is between State Rep. Ron Hanks and businessman Joe O’Dea. The race is on most lists of competitive general election contests, and Bennet did not crack 50% of the vote in either of his prior elections. This is definitely one to watch this fall if the rumored “red tsunami” materializes.
House: Colorado added a seat in the Census, going up from 7 seats to 8. The new seat, the 8th, also happens to be almost a pure toss-up district, at R+1. The 7th district has been represented by Ed Perlmutter (D) for eight terms, but he is retiring. At just D+3, it will be a prime target for national Republicans as well.
Illinois
Senate: Senator Tammy Duckworth (D) is seeking a second term and should win handily.
House: Opposite of Colorado, Illinois lost a seat in the Census, going from 18 to 17. Despite this, the new map is one of the most heavily gerrymandered in the nation, putting Democrats in a position to potentially pick up a representative.
New York
Senate: Senator Charles Schumer (D) is seeking a fifth term and should win handily.
House: New York also lost a seat, going from 27 to 26. Several races look to be competitive in November, with four toss-up districts and seven leaning districts (4 D, 3 R). The biggest storyline here is the incumbent-on-incumbent primary in New York City between two longtime Reps, Jerrold Nadler (D) and Carolyn Maloney (D). Out of the House’s 435 members, Nadler is the 13th most senior and Maloney is 20th. Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee and Maloney chairs Oversight and Government Reform. The House primaries are delayed until August 23 due to delayed redistricting, but keep an eye on this race. No matter who wins, it will be a major story.
Oklahoma
Senate:
A big GOP primary is on in the special election to fill out the remaining term of retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe (R), which I covered extensively in a recent deep dive. If no one wins 50%, it goes to a runoff in late August. Expect Rep. Markwayne Mullin to lead, but whether or not he’ll break 50% is still up in the air.
Sen. James Lankford (R) is also up for re-election to a full term, but should have no trouble in his primary.
House: Four of Oklahoma’s five House members are running for re-election and are likely to win easily. The only one who is not running is Mullin, as he chose to run for Senate. His second-district seat has 14 Republican candidates competing to succeed him. The district is ruby red, so whichever candidate prevails in the primary will be a shoo-in for the general election.
Utah
Senate: Senator Mike Lee (R) is seeking a third term and should win handily.
House: All four of Utah’s representatives are Republicans, and all four appear to be in good shape to return for another two years in the House.
Runoffs:
Mississippi
Senate: No Senate race.
House: Two Mississippi districts have interesting runoffs tomorrow. In the 3rd district, Navy veteran Michael Cassidy effectively tied incumbent Rep. Michael Guest, with Guest earning 268 more votes than Cassidy out of 50,000 cast. However, neither cracked 50%, so they will duke it out tomorrow for the Republican nomination in this solidly Republican seat. In the 4th district, scandal-plagued Rep. Steven Palazzo faces Sheriff Mike Ezell. Despite serving the district for six terms, Palazzo only garnered 31.5% of the primary vote, followed closely by Ezell’s 25.0%. Palazzo is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for accusations that he improperly used campaign funds to pay himself and his ex-wife nearly $200,000. He looks to be in serious trouble in his bid for a 7th term.
South Carolina
Senate: Senator Tim Scott (R) was unopposed in the primary. He awaits the results of a Democratic runoff between State Rep. Krystle Matthews and author Catherine Fleming Bruce. In the primary just two weeks ago, Bruce earned 34.7%, Matthews 33.2%, and Angela Geter 32.1%. This is about as close as a 3-way race can get, which also makes it nearly impossible to predict who will win tomorrow.
House: No runoffs.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Political Cheat Sheet