Happy 246th Birthday to our great nation! I hope you’re enjoying it with family and friends. To celebrate, comment below with the name of your favorite song about America! Mine is America by Simon & Garfunkel.
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A ton has happened in the past few days - I’ll try to break down some of the biggest stories for you on this great holiday.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 4, 2022.
Today is 127 days until the November midterm elections (about 18 weeks).
We are 855 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months).
Top Storylines
Dobbs fallout continues to roil Washington
In the week since the Dobbs ruling was handed down, Democrats have struggled to unite around a common response. Last Saturday, President Biden’s spokesperson said he still does not agree with court-packing to respond to Dobbs. Mid-week, pro-abortion-rights activists were describing the party’s response as “painfully inadequate” and criticized Democratic politicians’ prioritization of fundraising over action. By Thursday, Biden proposed an “exception” to the filibuster to pass abortion protections… which was immediately brushed aside as a non-starter by Senators Sinema (D-AZ) and Manchin (D-WV).
On the other side of the aisle, cracks are beginning to show in the Republican coalition between those who wish to pursue a nationwide ban on abortion and those that truly want to allow each state to make its own laws on the issue. Additional splits are forming around proposals to provide assistance to mothers and families.
Why this matters: Anyone who thought Dobbs ended the abortion debate in this country is kidding themselves. Democrats are at a complete loss for how to respond - they are taking a “fingers crossed” approach and hoping the issue somehow rescues them from a midterm slaughter. However, they at least now have something to rally the troops around. Republicans, meanwhile, may have won the battle, but with this issue now off the table, the army may break apart in the aftermath. Abortion policy tied together a lot of different pieces of a coalition that now may struggle to find common cause.
Bottom line: Abortion policy is far, far from being in the rear-view mirror. Stay tuned and keep an eye on the messaging from different factions within each party - everyone is dipping toes in the water and trying to feel out a new direction for the future of the issue.
January 6 Committee finally breaks through with surprise witness
Until last week, the January 6 Committee had struggled to garner attention for its hearings, even with the effort at a prime-time premiere. But last Tuesday, the testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson, former principal assistant to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, finally broke through the noise. Her testimony described actions by President Trump that have been widely described by news reports as “bombshell” allegations, including that Trump yelled at aides and Secret Service to allow armed protestors in to his speech on January 6, then tried to grab his vehicle’s steering wheel and force the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol. Some of Hutchinson’s testimony has since called into question, but not before it made real news. The Committee also suggested upcoming testimony will show that Trump or his associates attempted to intimidate potential witnesses.
Why this matters: So long as the allegations of witnesses are more or less the same things that have been in the news for 18 months, this committee’s hearings were not going to get much attention. Trump supporters have not just been waiting for a clearer presentation of known facts before changing their minds about him. The only thing the committee could do to actually change the conversation is present some actual new information, and that’s what Hutchinson’s testimony did. Rumor has it (see below in What I’m Watching #6) that the shifting narrative has President Trump considering announcing a re-election bid to head off more worsening of the narrative.
Bottom line: Trump can’t afford to see his support shaved off by this committee. Announcing early would completely flip the narrative and make it all about his re-election bid - and that’s something Donald J. Trump likes to hear.
Ketanji Brown Jackson sworn in as newest Supreme Court Justice
The Supreme Court wrapped up its term on Thursday, marking the end of Justice Stephen Breyer’s 28-year tenure at the age of 83. The same day, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, a 51-year-old former Breyer clerk and judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, was sworn in to take his seat. Justice Jackson (yes, this is how the Court will refer to her) grew up in Miami, then went to Harvard undergrad and Harvard Law School. She performed improv comedy while an undergrad and was a staff writer for Time Magazine for two years. Early in her career, Justice Jackson served as a federal public defender. Check out her full resume and background, as given to the Senate Judiciary Committee, here.
Justice Jackson is widely recognized as a top legal mind and was confirmed 53-47 in April. She is the 116th Supreme Court Justice and sixth woman on the Court.
Why this matters: At only 51 years old, we will likely be talking about our high court’s newest jurist for another 30 to 40 years. It’s important to understand who she is and where she comes from. Ideologically, she is not expected to provide a major change from Justice Breyer, but as we have seen many times, justices have minds of their own and can shift over time.
Credit: Wikipedia
Justice Jackson becomes the first Black female Supreme Court Justice, fulfilling President Biden’s promise to nominate a Black woman to fill the opening.
Bottom line: It will take a year or two to get a feel for Justice Jackson’s judicial temperament and ideology. However, she will be tested soon, with the Court agreeing to take up major cases this fall on affirmative action, voting laws, freedom of expression/gay rights, and more.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Supreme Court
“Major Questions Doctrine” explodes onto the scene at SCOTUS, with possibly broad repercussions
A 30,000-Foot View of the Abortion Ruling’s Political Fallout
A Transformative Term at the Most Conservative Supreme Court in Nearly a Century
Credit: New York Times
Elections
In Illinois, MAGA Congresswoman Rallies to Oust Her G.O.P. Colleague
But… Biden Irked by Democrats Who Won’t Take ‘Yes’ for an Answer on 2024,
and Trump Eyes Early 2024 Announcement as Jan. 6 Scrutiny Intensifies
Congress
The 20-Somethings Who Help the 70-Somethings Run Washington
Immigration
U.S. charges driver and 3 others in deaths of 53 migrants found in tractor-trailer
And a fun one:
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.2% Approve, 55.9% Disapprove (Net: -16.7%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Up 0.1%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop 3.8 points. There is a clear negative trend in his approval rating over the past several weeks. Biden’s approval level is now 3.5 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 20.2% Approve, 70.2% Disapprove (Net: -50.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 2.0%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable most of 2022, but the past month and a half has shown net approval getting steadily worse.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.0%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.4%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden will travel to Cleveland on Wednesday to speak about his economic agenda.
Biden’s next major foreign travel will be next Wednesday through Saturday, July 13-16, when he will travel to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
House
Recess this week; in session the next three weeks
Senate
Recess this week; in session the next four weeks
Upcoming Primaries
No primaries this week or next week. The next primary date is Tuesday, July 19, with Maryland.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Political Cheat Sheet