I hope you are enjoying your Memorial Day weekend with family and loved ones. Take some time today to think about the people who have fought on our behalf to ensure we all have the right to live in a free society and speak our minds.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, May 30, 2022.
Today is Memorial Day, a day to recognize the sacrifices of all those who have served in the armed forces in defense of our country.
Today is 162 days until the November midterm elections (about 23 weeks).
We are 890 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Gun laws take center stage
In the wake of the mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde, Congressional debate over gun laws has risen to a crescendo. Both the House and Senate are out of session until next week, so we are guaranteed at least one more week of positioning and negotiation before anything happens. House Dems have pledged a vote on a “red flag” law, while Senate Dems are looking for a “modest” deal on guns that could gain enough GOP support to overcome the filibuster. Some Republicans have expressed slightly more willingness to entertain these ideas than in the past, but there’s a long way to go before a deal is struck.
Why this matters: Mainstream Republican Senators are wary of anything that might mess up what looks to be a big red wave coming their way this November. If they feel like standing in the way of reform is likely to cause a backlash, expect several of them to look for a compromise to avoid it.
Bottom line: Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them in order to overcome a filibuster. This is only going to happen if the heat builds. If other news storylines crowd out the gun law reform debate, GOP Senators will feel less pressure to pass something this summer and no new gun-related laws will pass.
U.S. course change on Taiwan will have big future effects
Early last week during a press conference in Tokyo, a reporter asked President Biden if he “was willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan.” He responded, “yes.” This simple exchange has lit the foreign relations world afire. For decades, American Presidents have gone to extreme lengths to avoid giving such clear answers about the U.S.’s commitment to Taiwan. The effort has been so longstanding and deliberate that American policy toward Taiwan is referred to as “strategic ambiguity.”
White House officials immediately tried to walk back his statements, saying that U.S.-Taiwan policy has not changed. Biden himself did so at a press conference the next day, saying, “The policy has not changed at all.” However, explicitly committing to defend Taiwan militarily is a change in policy - and a major one, at that. Also, this is the third time in a year and a half that President Biden has said or implied he would intervene to defend Taiwan, and his pronouncements are getting stronger.
Why this matters: Taiwan and China have been mortal enemies for over 70 years. Amid the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s, a Communist offensive drove the Chinese government to retreat to Taiwan. Since 1949, that government has considered itself the rightful Chinese government in exile, while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ruled China as the de facto government, eventually gaining recognition by most of the world as the actual government of China. The CCP has long promised to snuff out this last remnant of their predecessors. If the U.S. intervenes in this civil war militarily, many fear it could mean the start of World War III.
Bottom line: President Biden can say all he wants that his words do not represent a change in policy, but Beijing, Taipei, and the rest of the world see it differently. If the President of the United States, the Commander in Chief of U.S. Armed Forces, says he will intervene in a conflict between China and Taiwan, it means something. Perhaps this is the right move, perhaps wrong, but it is enormously consequential either way.
Shifting GOP dynamics on display in Georgia, Alabama primaries
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s 73.5% to 21.9% romp over Trump-backed David Perdue in last week’s gubernatorial primary has shifted the center of gravity for Republicans. For months, this race was one of former President Trump’s top targets, as he wished to punish Kemp for his perceived disloyalty in the 2020 election. Despite this, Kemp more than tripled Perdue’s vote. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was also a top Trump target, but he similarly trounced Trump-backed challenger Congressman Jody Hice 52.1% to 33.7%.
One state to the west, in Alabama, Congressman Mo Brooks earned a spot in a runoff for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby. He did this despite being “un-endorsed” and left for dead by Trump a few weeks ago.
Several other mixed results around the country over the past few weeks have led less-Trumpy Republicans to feel more emboldened to express a differing view from the former President for the first time in several years.
Why this matters: If President Trump is becoming the leader of a faction of the Republican Party rather than the leader of the party as a whole, it could be the first realignment in the party since he first consolidated power in 2016. For the past six years, those with differing views have been instantly sidelined and shunned, effectively killing their careers on the spot.
Bottom line: Don’t count Trump out yet. He is still by far the most popular figure within the GOP, and if he announces a re-election bid it could cause the party to coalesce behind him once more. But these results do show he is not invincible, and that at some point the party will evolve beyond his leadership.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
The Economist explains America’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan
How Brian Kemp brilliantly politically kneecapped David Perdue in Georgia Governor primary
Review of the gun-related bills currently pending in Congress
McConnell taps Cornyn to negotiate with Dems on gun legislation
Former House Speaker Paul Ryan: Lawmakers now climb the ranks of Congress by “being an entertainer”
Outstanding take on “How Institutions Crumble” that merits a pull quote:
One of the greatest challenges for a republic is whether citizens, including elites and politicians, are willing to put institutional preservation over their immediate policy and political goals.
That willingness is always being tested, because people can rationalize that the institutional costs will be paid in the future while the policy and political gains may be enjoyed now. And institutional fidelity becomes particularly difficult in times of political polarization when many on each side of the aisle believe that the policies and politics of the other side are not only wrong, but evil.
And a fun one:
As an avid tennis-playing family, we take great delight in stories about Pickleballers eating their own
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
We have a change! On Tuesday, Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) submitted his resignation to accept an appointment as Lieutenant Governor of New York. His resignation was effective 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.
With that change, Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 40.6% Approve, 54.2% Disapprove (Net: -13.6%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.4%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. This week Biden dropped to his lowest-ever point in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, reaching just 36% support, and only 72% among his own party. Biden’s approval level remains slightly below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.8% Approve, 67.8% Disapprove (Net: -42.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 2.0%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +1.9
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.2%
Recent trend: Last week the GOP advantage appeared to be slightly narrowing. After another week of polling, the Republican advantage narrowed another 0.2%. Still not enough to pronounce a trend, but we’ll keep watching. Republicans had held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is in Wilmington, Delaware today, then will be in DC the rest of the week with no public events or travel announced yet.
House
District Work Week. Next week is also a District Work Week. In Session again beginning Tuesday, June 7.
Senate
State Work Week. In session next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, May 31
No Primaries
Next Tuesday, June 7
California
Senate: Alex Padilla (D) safe for election to a full term. Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsome when Kamala Harris resigned to accept the Vice Presidency. Safe D seat with jungle primary. All candidates are on one primary ballot, regardless of party. The top two vote-getters in the primary will face off in the November general election.
This one has a weird quirk. Since Padilla was appointed to fill out an unexpired term, he serves in that role until Californians can vote at the next general election on who will hold the seat for the completion of the term. That means Californians must vote this November 8 on who will serve out the remainder of VP Harris’s unexpired term. But that term ends on January 3, 2023, so the special election will only determine who holds the seat for about a month and a half. The election for the full six-year term for the same seat is on the same ballot; whoever wins that election will be sworn in on January 3 and serve for six years. Confused yet?
All of this will almost certainly not matter, as Padilla is expected to win both the Special and Regular elections for the seat, but it makes for quite a trivia question.
House: As the most populous state, California has the most House seats, at 52. However, the 2020 census marks the first time in its 170-year history that the state has ever lost a Congressional seat, as its growth did not keep pace with the rest of the country in the 2010s. Given its unique jungle primary system, expect several unexpected storylines to emerge.
Iowa
Senate: Chuck Grassley (R) safe for re-election. The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Grassley up 18 among likely general election voters against former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer (D).
House: Only one of the state’s four Congressional seats has a primary battle. The 3rd District GOP primary winner will face Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne in one of the best GOP takeover targets nationwide. The new 3rd in southwest Iowa is rated as R+2, and Axne only won 48.9% to 47.5% in 2020.
Montana
No Senate race
House: Montana gained a seat in the census, taking it from one at-large seat to two seats. This makes Montana the first state relegated to at-large status (in 1993) to regain a second Congressional seat. However, both seats are strongly Republican, with MT-1 rating at R+10 and MT-2 at R+30. With current Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) opting to run in the 2nd District, the open 1st District has five GOP contestants.
New Jersey
No Senate race
House: New Jersey retains its 12 seats from the prior census. In the 8th District, Rep. Albio Sires (D) is retiring, creating an open race for the heavily Democratic seat. All other incumbents are running for re-election. Of these, the 7th District is the most likely to be in play in the general election, as it leans R+3 but is currently held by Rep. Tom Malinowski (D).
New Mexico
No Senate race
House: New Mexico retains its three seats from the prior census. Overall, the state’s map is one of the more evenly-drawn maps, with NM-1 rated D+11, NM-2 as D+5, and NM-3 as D+4. Incumbent Yvette Herrell’s (R) 2nd District went from R+14 to D+4, providing a huge test. The other two representatives are both Democrats in Dem-leaning districts, but each has seen their expected margins shrink. Rep. Melanie Stansbury’s 1st District has gone from D+18 to D+11, and Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez’s 3rd District went from D+14 to D+5. All three incumbents are running for re-election. These races should all be interesting to watch.
South Dakota
Senate: John Thune (R) safe for re-election.
House: One at-large seat, leaning heavily Republican at R+32, expected to be easily held by incumbent Dusty Johnson (R).
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Political Cheat Sheet