Welcome to all of our new readers - we’ve got a lot on tap this week! Keep an eye out for another deep dive into a pivotal U.S. Senate race mid-week. And later in the week, you’ll have a chance to participate in a Discussion Thread - email me if you have a topic to suggest! Just click reply on this email or type it in the comments at the bottom.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 6, 2022.
Today is 155 days until the November midterm elections (about 22 weeks).
We are 883 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Biden White House struggling to find direction
An NBC News report released Tuesday described a sense of panic setting in at the White House in recent weeks. Headlined, “Inside a Biden White House adrift,” the story spells out the frustrations of both President Biden and staffers. According to their sources, Biden is “bristling at how [staffers have] tried to stifle the plain-speaking persona that has long been one of his most potent assets,” like trying to immediately walk back his off-the-cuff statements in clear contradiction of his words. Aides feel Biden has been dealt an unfair hand of consecutive crises, saying he “just can’t catch a break.” Speculation is high that Biden may shake up his staff, including replacing Chief of Staff Ron Klain.
Why this matters: We are still about five months out from the election, but the left is already starting to point fingers about who should take the blame for an electoral loss. The month of May saw the “right track/wrong track” polls plummet from -32.6% to -47.8%, and “wrong track” now stands at a whopping 70.3%.
White House staffers complaining about their bad luck with world events will not garner much sympathy from voters. President Biden ran on a platform of essentially a “return to normal,” and whether or not it’s his fault, things are most definitely not normal.
Bottom line: As the saying goes, The Buck Stops Here. This means voters will hold the President accountable whether or not everything is his fault and whether or not it’s fair. Biden and the rest of his team had better stop making excuses and start acting like they’re responsible, because voters will hold them responsible either way.
House to vote on gun bills this week
On Wednesday and Thursday, the House of Representatives plans to vote on two bills intended to address gun violence: H.R. 2377, the Federal Extreme Risk Protection Order Act of 2021, and H.R. 7910, the Protecting Our Kids Act. After last week’s contentious Judiciary Committee hearings, expect the Floor debate to get heated and the votes to fall largely along party lines.
Why this matters: Democratic leadership has taken some heat from both parties for wrapping several gun-related priorities together into H.R. 7910. If the pieces were separated into individual bills and members were forced to vote on each individual proposal, some may have a greater chance of passing and gaining bipartisan support. Wrapping them together in an omnibus gun bill risks looking like a political tactic rather than a plan to actually pass legislation.
Bottom line: Democrats will face pressure to split up the bills into smaller component parts and force multiple votes. Politically, they would be wise to do so. When many things are tied together in a big package, it makes it much easier for opponents to find a justification to vote against the entire bill. If the goal is to put maximum pressure on Republicans, they should split up the bills.
Ukraine war starting to turn in Russia’s favor
The Russia-Ukraine war crossed the 100-day mark last week. Ukraine’s early victories, both militarily and in world public opinion, left the impression among many that Ukraine had emerged victorious. In reality, Russia regrouped and turned its focus to the eastern portion of the country, and its new strategy is showing signs of success. Moscow’s new focus is a brutal war of attrition, which over time it believes it will win. Russia now controls a wide swath of southeastern Ukraine, including the Black Sea coast and the Donbas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Russia now controls about 20% of the country. Many Ukrainian troops are reportedly demoralized amid brutal Russian tactics.
Why this matters: After the massive initial spike in interest, the conflict has faded from Americans’ consciousness. Google search results for “Ukraine” peaked on February 24 at a relative value (RV) of 100. As the chart below shows, today the RV is 2, meaning interest has dropped 98%.
Bottom line: In a drawn-out war of attrition, Ukraine risks losing the world’s attention and support. Their population and military capabilities are far less than those of Russia. President Zelensky has shown the ability to garner public attention and support in the past; he may have to dial up those efforts to secure a long-term victory.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Jan. 6 committee set to make its case public with prime-time hearings
Issue polling on guns doesn’t match how voters actually vote
Professors say mass shooters overwhelmingly fit a certain profile that can be ID’d in advance
U.S. warship arrives in Stockholm for military exercises, and as a warning
Fetterman’s heart issues add wild card to key Pennsylvania Senate race
Dept. of Health and Human Services announces office of environmental justice
Axios maps the distribution of voter intensity on major policy issues
And a fun one:
When celebrating your heroes for Memorial Day, try not to use Chinese fighter jets.
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 40.8% Approve, 53.7% Disapprove (Net: -12.9%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.7%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 3 points. Biden’s approval level remains slightly below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.4% Approve, 68.2% Disapprove (Net: -46.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.8%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.1
Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.2%
Recent trend: Republicans held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May. Since then, the gap has narrowed slightly and has leveled out around the +2 range.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden will be in Los Angeles Wednesday and Thursday, then will make a trip to Santa Fe, New Mexico, on Saturday.
House
In Session Tuesday through Thursday this week. In Session Monday through Thursday next week.
Senate
In Session this week and next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 7
California
Senate: Alex Padilla (D) safe for election to a full term. Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsome when Kamala Harris resigned to accept the Vice Presidency. Safe D seat with jungle primary. All candidates are on one primary ballot, regardless of party. The top two vote-getters in the primary will face off in the November general election.
This one has a weird quirk. Since Padilla was appointed to fill out an unexpired term, he serves in that role until Californians can vote at the next general election on who will hold the seat for the completion of the term. That means Californians must vote this November 8 on who will serve out the remainder of VP Harris’s unexpired term. But that term ends on January 3, 2023, so the special election will only determine who holds the seat for about a month and a half. The election for the full six-year term for the same seat is on the same ballot; whoever wins that election will be sworn in on January 3 and serve for six years. Confused yet?
All of this will almost certainly not matter, as Padilla is expected to win both the Special and Regular elections for the seat, but it makes for quite a trivia question.
House: As the most populous state, California has the most House seats, at 52. However, the 2020 census marks the first time in its 170-year history that the state has ever lost a Congressional seat, as its growth did not keep pace with the rest of the country in the 2010s. Given its unique jungle primary system, expect several unexpected storylines to emerge.
Iowa
Senate: Chuck Grassley (R) safe for re-election. The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Grassley up 18 among likely general election voters against former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer (D).
House: Only one of the state’s four Congressional seats has a primary battle. The 3rd District GOP primary winner will face Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne in one of the best GOP takeover targets nationwide. The new 3rd in southwest Iowa is rated as R+2, and Axne only won 48.9% to 47.5% in 2020.
Montana
No Senate race
House: Montana gained a seat in the census, taking it from one at-large seat to two seats. This makes Montana the first state relegated to at-large status (in 1993) to regain a second Congressional seat. However, both seats are strongly Republican, with MT-1 rating at R+10 and MT-2 at R+30. With current Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) opting to run in the 2nd District, the open 1st District has five GOP contestants.
New Jersey
No Senate race
House: New Jersey retains its 12 seats from the prior census. In the 8th District, Rep. Albio Sires (D) is retiring, creating an open race for the heavily Democratic seat. All other incumbents are running for re-election. Of these, the 7th District is the most likely to be in play in the general election, as it leans R+3 but is currently held by Rep. Tom Malinowski (D).
New Mexico
No Senate race
House: New Mexico retains its three seats from the prior census. Overall, the state’s map is one of the more evenly-drawn maps, with NM-1 rated D+11, NM-2 as D+5, and NM-3 as D+4. Incumbent Yvette Herrell’s (R) 2nd District went from R+14 to D+4, providing a huge test. The other two representatives are both Democrats in Dem-leaning districts, but each has seen their expected margins shrink. Rep. Melanie Stansbury’s 1st District has gone from D+18 to D+11, and Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez’s 3rd District went from D+14 to D+5. All three incumbents are running for re-election. These races should all be interesting to watch.
South Dakota
Senate: John Thune (R) safe for re-election.
House: One at-large seat, leaning heavily Republican at R+32, expected to be easily held by incumbent Dusty Johnson (R).
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
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